Domestic Spot Alumina Transaction Prices Continue to Decline; Alumina Export Window May Gradually Open [SMM Morning Comment on Alumina]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on February 11

Futures Market: During the overnight session, the most-traded alumina 2505 futures contract opened at 3,460 yuan/mt, reached a high of 3,493 yuan/mt, a low of 3,458 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,474 yuan/mt, down 2 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Open interest stood at 144,000 lots.

Spot Alumina Transactions: On Monday, Qinghai aluminum plants inquired about purchasing 5,000 mt of spot alumina, with Shandong-origin cargoes priced at 3,600 yuan/mt on a delivery-to-factory basis. In south-west China, 3,000 mt of spot alumina were transacted at an ex-factory price of 3,635 yuan/mt, including partial acceptance. In Guangxi, 2,000 mt of spot alumina were transacted, with Yunnan aluminum plants purchasing at a delivery-to-factory price of 3,460 yuan/mt.

Industry Dynamics:

According to data from February 7, the total weekly port arrivals of domestic bauxite stood at 3.1809 million mt, down 955,900 mt from the previous week. Weekly port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totaled 2.6859 million mt, down 287,700 mt from the previous week. Weekly port departures of bauxite from Australia's main ports totaled 443,100 mt, down 291,700 mt from the previous week.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, as of 11:30 am on February 10, the SMM alumina index showed a premium of 116 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price.

Warehouse Warrant Daily Report: On February 10, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina decreased by 1,804 mt from the previous trading day to 28,200 mt. In Shandong, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 2,410 mt. In Henan, the total registered warehouse warrants decreased by 6,003 mt to 601 mt. In Guangxi and Gansu, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 0 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 4,199 mt to 25,200 mt.

Overseas Market: As of February 10, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $531/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $19.30/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate sell price was around 7.32. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 4,633 yuan/mt at domestic main ports, which is 1,049 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remains closed.

Summary: Overall, in the short term, alumina operating capacity continues to increase, and the spot alumina market supply is relatively ample compared to earlier periods, with spot transaction prices continuing to decline. In the short term, there are no clear expectations for alumina production cuts, and supply remains stable. However, some aluminum production cuts or technological transformation capacities in south-west China may gradually resume production, leading to a slight rebound in demand. Nevertheless, this is unlikely to reverse the relatively ample supply situation in the spot alumina market. Continuous attention should be paid to bauxite prices and supply conditions.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]